Invest 95L 'has the potential to ramp up quickly, perhaps to a major hurricane'
Tropical storm conditions could arrive as early as Sunday in the Windward Islands.
The tropics are heating up, and one system is expected to become either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Beryl later today or Saturday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
AccuWeather forecasters said the system, designated as Invest 95L, could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.
The system also "has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph)."
The next named storm of the season will be Beryl.
"This feature is tracking south of a zone of dry air, dust and stiff disruptive breezes called wind shear," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"Should the system stay in the moist zone and away from large land areas, it has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph)," AccuWeather said.
Recent tropical activity unusual for this time of year
"Storms typically do not strengthen regularly over the main hurricane development zone until mid-August or later," according to AccuWeather.
"The period from late June through much of July is typically quiet with only one or two named systems by mid- to late July."
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. June 28:
Where is Invest 95L? Will it become Tropical Storm Beryl or hurricane?
Invest 95L: A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.
Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday.
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Beryl?
Could Florida, US feel an impact?
"Depending on steering breezes, the system may push westward across Central America later next week or turn northwestward and reach the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend, where it would become a concern for the United States," according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters recommended residents in the Caribbean, Central America and the Gulf Coast of the U.S. monitor the system closely.
Jim Cantore tweeted Thursday, June 27. "The sun is up on invest #95L as it is expected to mature even further over the next 24 to 72 hours.
"Much of the guidance has a high end TS or Cane by time it makes it to the Windwards by Monday which is certainly noteworthy. Given we've only had one hurricane in June before reaching the islands (1933) we don't have a large dataset from which to work with.
"That said this is certainly unusual for this time of year. Steering is locked westward with Atlantic subtropical ridge. Consensus then has it continuing west where at this point I don't think its fair to proceed with any confidence on track and strength past the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. NHC confidence 90% on development at this time."
Where is Invest 94L? Will it become tropical storm?
Invest 94L: A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this system is not expected today while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and an Air Force reconnaissance mission planned for today has been canceled.
The disturbance is then expected to move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, at which point some development will be possible.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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